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Thoughts on Voting

"The people who cast the votes don't decide an election; the people who COUNT the votes do." -- Joseph Stalin

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

A Prediction: Obama/Edwards to Deliver Knockout Punch

There has been all kinds of speculation since John Edwards met with Hillary Clinton last week and was scheduled to meet with Barack Obama yesterday (postponed) around an Edwards endorsement. Here's my take on the matter. I believe that last week Edwards let Hillary know that she would not be receiving his endorsement. This became quite clear to me yesterday as I watched Kathleen Kennedy Townsend downplay the importance of any endorsement, let alone that of John Edwards.

If John was going to endorse Hillary, you can bet Kennedy-Townsend would have been talking up the importance of endorsements. He is not, and she did not.

Now, let's get down to the "postponed" meeting between my two favorite Democratic candidates, the two most likely to produce the change we are all seeking. In my humble opinion, the two men discussed on the phone, the fact that the Battle for the Beltway tonight (the DC, Maryland and Virginia primaries) should result in a second-in-a-row CLEAN SWEEP for Obama. That will give him EIGHT STRAIGHT VICTORIES in EIGHT STRAIGHT STATES. That momentum, PLUS the decided financial advantage have him poised for the big three: OHIO, TEXAS and PENNSYLVANIA.

If Barack Obama wins any one of those states, Hillary Clinton's presidential hopes are toast. What better time than AFTER sweeping eight straight states for John Edwards to enter the fray and not only endorse, but join Barack on the campaign trail? The KNOCKOUT IS NEAR.

Now, let's go even a bit further. Which state is most likely to fall to Obama? I say it's between Texas and Ohio. Texas has an arcane primary caucus system, one in which delegates are based upon voter turnout in prior gubernatorial and presidential elections. Because voter turnout in those elections was VERY LOW among Hispanics whom Hillary MUST depend upon, and much higher in the major African-American districts in Houston and Dallas, Clinton's supposed big advantage with Hispanics is lessened. The addition of Edwards may well mean victory for Obama in Texas.

MY Prediction: Obama will be the nominee before June of this year.

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