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"The people who cast the votes don't decide an election; the people who COUNT the votes do." -- Joseph Stalin

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Pennsylvania: Hillary's Last Gasp

Wading Hip-Deep Through the Clinton/Media Spin

Hillary Clinton scratched and clawed her way to an 8.6% victory in Pennsylvania's Democratic primary contest. This was far short of the 28 point advantage she held in the Quinnipiac poll just a few short months ago, and despite her "kitchen sink" strategy where she attacked Obama as being unqualified, unpatriotic, and possessing dangerous friends.

To watch and listen to the so-called pundits on television last night, it was nauseating to see Chris Matthews kiss the butt of Howard Wolfson, Clinton's chief spinmaster as he tried to portray this expected win in the "Perfect State" for Clinton into somehow meaning that Obama can't close the deal. Close the deal? Hillary started out with $100 million and a huge advantage over all rivals just a short time ago. This rookie from Illinois has outwitted, outsmarted, outplayed, outmanaged, and out-financed the great Clinton machine and its 20-year history.

Wolf Blitzer, Pat Buchanan, Joe Scarborough, David Gregory and the rest of the media shills for Hillary have been so partial to date, it is a sad commentary on our supposed "liberal" media. What are the real facts?

Hillary picked up 15 delegates on Obama last night. That is the ONLY criteria in this race -- PLEDGED DELEGATES, not popular vote, not largest states, not electoral votes. This is a contest with rules and whoever gets to 2025 delegates first, WINS.

The pledged delegate totals are now: Obama - 1,479; Hillary - 1,328. (Obama by 151)
The Super Delegate totals are now: Obama - 234; Hillary - 258. (Hillary by 24)

TOTAL DELEGATES: Obama - 1,713 Hillary - 1,586 (Obama leads by 127 delegates)


Coming Up:

(for all projections, we use

May 3 - Guam (4 delegates) Each will win 2 delegates.

May 6 - North Carolina (115 delegates) Obama leads by 15% in an average of all major polls. Assuming a 12 point victory for Obama, he will win the delgates by 65-50 (Obama +15)

May 6 - Indiana (72 delegates) Obama leads by 5% in both recent polls, but the results are skewed by a SurveyUSA Poll which shows Clinton leading by 16%. The average favors Clinton by 2.2% so we will give her a 4% victory in Indiana, although we expect an Obama victory in this state. Delegate count: Clinton - 37; Obama- 35. (Clinton +2)

SUBTOTALS: Obama - 1,815; Clinton - 1,675 (Obama now leads by 140 delegates)


Remaining States

That leaves six more contests:
  • West Virginia on 5/13 (28 delegates);
  • Kentucky (51 delegates) and Oregon (52 delegates) on 5/20;
  • Puerto Rico on 6/1 (55 delegates)"
  • Montana (16 delegates) and South Dakota (15 delegates) on 6/3.
Clinton is favored in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico;
Obama is favored in Oregon, Montana and South Dakota.

Total Delegates from these 6 contests: 215.

Let's split them 50/50 and see what we have:

Obama - 1,922; Clinton - 1,783.

Obama needs only 102 of the remaining 300+ super delegates to surpass the 2024 mark and become the party nominee. Those are the mathematical facts. Hillary Clinton has virtually NO CHANCE of becoming the party's nominee if the rules are followed. NONE. This video explains it best:

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